Are Blue Jays fans over-valuing Noah Syndergaard?

It’s funny that I’m writing this on a prospect-focused site, but I think some perspective is in order. Prospect valuations have gotten out of control. Not necessarily at the professional level, where this offseason has seen a trend toward lower prospect values (4-for-1 trades were the norm). However, among fans, prospects have gained legendary status before ever reaching the majors. (*Note that I’m as guilty as anyone, and I’m presenting Noah Syndergaard with his Cy Young Award in my mind already…)

Here’s some sobering facts about prospects: Year over year, pitching prospects continue to have a >30% failure rate. Over 50% never produce more than 2 WAR in a given season. Top hitting prospects have a 10% failure rate, and again, over 50% never contribute more than 2 WAR per year. Effectively, what I’m telling you is: “That prospect you like? They’ll be lucky to be a replacement-level player.” Remember that next time someone proposes a trade involving prospects.

The problem is further compounded when attaching a draft-status to a given player. First-round picks only make it to the majors about 30% of the time (Look it up) and of those, less than 10% are ever all-stars. Every other major sport would laugh at that kind of success rate. MLB has addressed some of this discrepancy with the new draft system, but it will be years before we see if that properly values draft position.

There’s also the problem of international talent. There is no solid available data for success for these types, but they typically fly well under the radar until they reach the upper-minors. (See Henderson Alvarez and Nestor Molina).

Obviously injury is a major factor, especially with pitchers. But even discounting that, some fantastic talents are never able to present their ability at the highest level. The other factor to consider when valuing prospects realistically, is that their contributions are so far away. In the same way that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar in one year (Called Net Present Value in the finance world. Basically, if you have the dollar today, you can invest it. In a year, that dollar is worth more than the future dollar). A prospect today, when fairly evaluated, should be worth less than a player that is contributing at the major league level.

I still haven’t dealt with what I call “Prospect Manipulation.” Some clubs have traditionally progressed their prospects at a slower rate, which makes them seem to perform much better than their peers. An interesting example of this is happening with the Jays right now. Jake Marisnick and Anthony Gose are less than a year separated in age. Yet Gose has played at consistently higher levels every season. Gose carries major scouting concerns about his ability to hit for contact. Marisnick is rated as having much better contact ability. If their positions were reversed, would Gose make more contact? Almost surely. The Yankees and Red Sox have been using this kind of process for a while now. The Phillies too. It’s remarkable that these teams can trade their best prospects every year, and still have such highly ranked farm systems. Contrast this with Milwaukee and the White Sox, who are usually aggressive with prospects, and their systems rank much lower.

Anyway, I don’t want to be the spoil-sport here. Just trying to add some perspective for all of us fans. Yes, our farm system is exciting. The thing that works best for the Jays is volume. The team has so much prospect depth, that it can easily with stand the normal prospect attrition rate. It’s a well built system, with much more to come. Many of these players will end up with other organizations, but it’s nice to know that the Jays can keep the best for themselves.

While Gabe Jacobo was drafted by the Angels in the 10th round of the 2008 Draft, he joined the Blue Jays organization this year in the Rule 5 Draft

This past December, the Toronto Blue Jays were fortunate to be able to grab first baseman, Gabe Jacobo, in the Rule 5 Draft from the Los Angeles Angels. Being new to the organization, JaysProspects was very fortunate to be able to sit down with not only the strong prospect, but also his wife, Tanne, who both discussed Gabe’s baseball journey thus far.

Jacobo was drafted in the 10th round of the 2008 MLB Draft by the Los Angeles Angels, a professional team only a few hours from his hometown of Visalia, California. “Being drafted by any MLB team has always been a dream of mine. So when a team in my home state picked me it was pretty exciting, but at the same time I realized I would be all over the country until eventually playing in California,” Jacobo said.

Jacobo was right about the needed travel as he started with the Angels in Orem Utah and with the Cedar Rapids (A) in Iowa. Collectively that year he posted a .324 average in 70 games, recording 28 doubles, three triples, 10 homeruns and 56 RBIS.

“I really enjoyed my first year in pro ball with the Angels. I would say that my most memorable moment would be my first at bat, when I hit a homerun on the first pitch. That is something I will never forget.”

His strong level of play in his first year, earned him a promotion in 2010 to play with the Rancho Cucamonga (A+) in California. In his hometown state, Jacobo had another productive season, posting a .296 batting average in 133 games with 26 doubles, seven triples, 22 homeruns, 107 RBIs and six stolen bases. 

“That year in Rancho was probably one of the most consistent years I have had so far. I felt comfortable at the plate and was surrounded with a good line up. Guys were constantly getting on base and put in scoring position for me to drive them in. I felt like I had a plan and I stuck with it and hopefully I can have seasons similar to that again.”

In his first year with the Angels, spent mostly with the Cedar Rapids, Jacobo posted a .324 average with 28 doubles, three triples, 10 homeruns and 56 RBIS.

With that said, his pass season in the Arkansas Travelers (AA), he did have another similar season, as he posted a .270 average with 13 doubles, four triples, 10 homeruns, and 49 RBIs. This successful season enabled scouts from various organizations to realize how strong of a player he was, including the Blue Jays, who were able to grab him from the Rule 5 draft this past off-season.

“You hear it all the time and it is true that you are playing for all 30 teams in the minor leagues. You never know who is watching and it just takes one guy to like you. In my case, a scout from the Blue Jays liked me and I’m fortunate to get the chance to play for them. I was a bit surprised seeing my name in the Rule 5 draft, so there were a lot of emotions that day.”

He also added:

“You start to realize baseball is baseball no matter where you are, but being able to see family and friends at games is a plus. I enjoyed my time with Angels and met some really great people. I am looking forward to joining a new organization.”

While Jacobo mentioned how excited he is looking forward to playing with the Blue Jays organization, it should be noted that the Blue Jays should be equally looking forward to as he is extremely versatile. In fact, the 24-year-old prospect has been a left-fielder, a third-baseman, and a first-baseman.

“I’ve always prided myself on playing defense and have always taken it seriously,” Jacobo said about his defensive abilities. “I think growing up playing shortstop really helped me learn the game and helped my versatility. I look forward to playing wherever I am needed and do the best I can.”

One of the many times that Jacobo did the best he could was both hitting for the cycle in 2009 and hitting three homeruns in 2010. As Jacobo remised, “Baseball is a pretty funny game, it is a long season and there are tons of ups and downs. I would say for my best day it’s a toss-up between hitting for the cycle in 2009 in Cedar Rapids and hitting three home runs in a game in 2010 in Rancho. Both accomplishments are tough to come by and don’t happen every day, so those were definitely a couple of my best days.”

While Gabe has found support with fans, his biggest supporter is his wife, Tanne. They two married in 2009.

He added, however, that, much like any baseball player, he has also had days where he has done not as well. “Bad days are little more common since it is a game of failure,” he said. “But I would say my worst was striking out four times in one game. That definitely was something I wasn’t used to, but is a good experience to learn from.”

JaysProspects was happy to find out that Tanne Jacobo, Gabe’s wife, was able to witness many of these highlights of his career. “I have been able to watch Gabe play a lot these past four seasons. The first two seasons I stayed home and visited because I was finishing up my degree but after we got married in 2009 I started traveling with him and I am having a blast,” she said. “It’s so fun to be a part of this with him, to be able to go to almost every game and to also be that support that he needs has meant a lot to both of us these past couple seasons.”

Tanne also gave fans a little bit of insight on how her husband is on game day: “Gabe on game day is Gabe any other day. We don’t talk much about the game he has that day or the game the night before. I am what we call an escape from this crazy game. We focus on everything but baseball and enjoy each other’s company. I don’t get to see him in game mode too often because it really starts when he gets with his teammates on the field.”

On that note, Mrs. Jacobo also discussed how baseball has impacted their relationship. “Baseball has been part of our lives for our entire relationship,” she said without hesitation. “We started dating in high school and from that moment on baseball was a big deal. We feel so blessed to still have it be a big deal for us. I’ve had as many ups as downs living this life. It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity so it’s exciting and fun but there are also days where it takes a big toll on us. Being apart is never easy but to know what could be the outcome of this journey is so worth it!”

Gabe's wife, Tanne, admits that baseball has been a part of their relationship since the very beginning. They are both very excited to see what his new journey with the Blue Jays organization will bring.

There was no denying that the aforementioned move to the Blue Jays deeply impacted not only Gabe’s career but that of Tanne’s as well. As Tanne stated, “When I heard that Gabe was going to be a Blue Jay… I cried. I was excited, shocked, nervous, anxious, happy and pretty much every emotion you could think of. We were not expecting to be in the Rule 5 but hey, that’s baseball for ya. We are both really excited and very grateful for this opportunity with the Jays. If and when he gets to Vegas I will be there! Its only six hours from home and I haven’t decided on whether I will stay home or go with him this season.  We are waiting on Gods decision for that one. But I do know that all of our family and friends are very excited for the potential opportunity to take a trip to Vegas to watch some baseball!”

When JaysProspects asked Gabe if he had one thing about himself he’d like to share, he replied “Something people might not know is that I like to play the guitar and would love to learn the piano. Music is something I really enjoy, all types. I’m still learning both but it is something that really intrigues me.” While JaysProspects loved that answer, we were even more excited to hear what Tanne would say about her husband: “Gabe is the most humble person I know,” she said. “He never takes his career for granted and he works really hard for what he wants. That’s something I have always loved about him.”

This determination and dedication was also apparent when Gabe explained his plans for the offseason. “This offseason is all about getting healthy and ready to play. I had my knee cleaned up in September and now I am doing everything I can to get back to 100%. Working out, training, hitting and working on the different positions are all things that are keeping me busy this offseason. I’m looking forward to spring training in Florida and can’t wait to get going.”

JaysProspects also cannot wait for the season to get going and we are also looking to seeing Gabe Jacobo making his Blue Jays debut with the AAA Las Vegas team this upcoming season!

We also wish Gabe Jacobo the best of luck with his career and wish him and his wife, Tanne, the very best in the future and we thank them both very much for their time.

Taylor Cole was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 29th round of the 2011 draft (photo credit: Vancouver Canadians)

While Taylor Cole was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2007 and the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2008, he joined the Blue Jays’ organization in 2011 after being selected in the 29^th round.

Cole admitted that he did not sign in 2007 as he felt he would greatly benefit from playing college ball. In 2008, he also mentioned that he decided to bypass the draft and serve on a mission, which, interestingly enough, was in Toronto, Ontario.

In fact, Cole’s two-year mission was initiated thanks to advice from Baltimore Orioles’ Jeremy Guthrie. Cole told JaysProspects: “After my first year in college, at the age of 19, I served a two-year mission for my church in, of all places, Toronto Canada.  I have grown to love Canada from both serving my mission in Toronto and playing my first year of pro ball in Vancouver.  Serving the mission was a very difficult time, but I know that it was the right thing to do for me at that time in my life.”

After his mission, Cole returned back to the game, attending Brigham Young University, a school that combines both the importance of church and athletics. There, as a softmore, he posted a 5-5 record with a 2.99 ERA. “BYU was a great school in which I spent the first year back from my mission,” Cole stated. “It was a good transition because they were able to help me get back in baseball shape because they deal with return missionaries coming home each year.  I am grateful for the time spent there and the lifelong friends that I made.”

As a softmore at Brigham Young University, Cole posted a 5-5 record with a 2.99 ERA

His time at BYU was also successful as it opened a door to the Toronto Blue Jays organization. In fact, in 2011, in his first year with the Blue Jays, the young right-hander posted a 1-3 record with a 5.88 ERA with 6.7K/9 innings pitched. His dominance on the mound, in fact, helped his team win the Northwest League Championship. “It was a magical season being able to win the championship,” he said.  “My teammates really made it count when it was needed.  When you play better players, you really have to limit your mistakes and make sure that you are dialed in mentally.  I know what it feels like to experience failure and have mistakes that you can control haunt you. I’m grateful for that and am working hard to make sure that I am all I know I can be for this upcoming season.”

The Las Vegas native also found comparable success in college as well, as in 2008, during his freshman year at the College of Southern Nevada, the young prospect went 10-3 with a 1.37 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 92 innings. When asked what has enabled him to find success he admitted that the values his parents bestowed in him have been very beneficial. “My dad always taught me confidence and hard work.  When you put those two together there is a lot that you can accomplish. My mother’s constant support for being there for me in so many ways outside of baseball has also been crucial to my success.”

Additionally, Cole added that he has also found success thus far in his career due to his strong arm and his strong pitch repertoire. “I currently throw two different fastballs, a change up and a slider.  With that said, I am working on other pitches to add to my arsenal,” Cole admitted.

While he has a strong pitches and command, Cole admits that his successes in life can be attributed to the constant support he has received from his wife, Madilyn (pictured above) his parents, coaches, and friends

Interestingly, when Cole attended Bishop Gorman High School he not only needed his repertoire but also strong defensive skills as he played both the position of pitcher and shortstop. His strong skills and versatility enabled him to be declared his school athlete of the year. Finding both success at the plate and on the mound, JaysProspects asked Cole why he chose a career as a pitcher. He replied, “When people asked me what my best tool was as a player I always said my arm.  At any level, there are more pitchers on a team than anything else and I felt that it opened up doors for me to get to the big leagues.”

Now into the offseason, Cole is doing all he can to open up more doors for him to the big leagues. He has admitted that he is presently spending his offseason in his hometown of Las Vegas with his trainer, Dr. Robert Braden, working on getting stronger and more and more ready for the 2012 season.

Living in Las Vegas, Cole also added that he has been to Cashman field, the present home of the AAA-affiliate of the Blue Jays, many times over the years. “I remember going for my birthday one year and having my name announced.  I know that my family and friends would love to see me play there one day and would definitely fill the stands.”

JaysProspects has faith that Cole will continue to work hard and will successfully continue his journey not only to AAA Las Vegas, but to his destination of the Majors as he not only has the skill and determination but also the positive outlook.

In fact, when asked if he had any advice to future players trying to live the dream as Cole is living presently, Cole stated the following: “Work hard so that doors will open.  If they don’t, at least you can know that you did everything in your power and feel at peace towards that.”

JaysProspects wishes Taylor Cole the best of luck working hard opening many doors in his future. We wish him all the best in the 2012 season and thank him kindly for his time.

Photo Credit: http://www.dplbaseball.com

The Toronto Blue Jays have signed 16-year-old short-stop Ronniel Demorizi out of San Francisco de Macoris, Dominican Republic. The 6 foot 170lbs switch hitter signed for $105,000, according to Dominican Prospect League website.

Demorizi was ranked among the best participating short-stops in the DPL, according to the DPL website. He was named to the Under Armour All-America Game, DPL Elite Travel Team and the DPL All-Star Game.

Demorizi shows decent bat speed from both sides of the plate, profiling as a line drive gap hitter with little power. He is a natural short-stop with good foot work and soft hands. He has above average range thanks to his athletic body. He makes defensive plays look effortless and is his best tool. He is very athletic but is a quirky runner. Still needs some work offensively but is polished defensively which should help his progression.

While Wes Etheridge was drafted by the Brewers in 2007, he joined the Toronto Blue Jays this past season

Wes Etheridge followed many paths on his journey to the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization. It included being drafted by the Brewers in the 12^th round of the 2007 draft, changing career paths to become a youth pastor, then re-pursuing his career in baseball and joining the Maui Independent League, before finally joining the Blue Jays’ organization this past season. Etheridge sat down with JaysProspects to discuss his exciting but challenging journey back to professional baseball.

Etheridge admitted that when he had heard he was drafted by the Brewers in the 12^th round of the 2007 draft, he was playing in a game for his college team.  “I was in a super-regional, so I wasn’t able to get to spend it with my family, but my dad was at the super regional so that was cool having him there because he taught me how to play.” he said. “I remember being excited mostly because I didn’t have to go to school anymore and I always figured it was pretty amazing being able to play a sport and get paid for it.”

Etheridge joined the Brewers’ organization in 2008 playing both rookie-ball and A-ball, where he posted a 0-1 record with four saves and a 5.00ERA. In 36 innings, he struck out 30 and walked only nine. When asked which of his pitches enable him to find such success on the mound, the right-handed replied, “I basically just throw a sinking fastball.  Every once and a while I will throw a breaking ball but mainly just my sinker.”

With that said, in the middle of his first season, he experienced an ankle injury. While it was healing, he decided to change career paths and retire to be become a youth pastor. “I came back after the ankle injury to my A ball club and my heart just wasn’t in the game,” he said. “I had a different view of how professional baseball was and I was a new Christian at the time and my main focus was getting to know God.  Baseball was on the back burner and it was difficult to get up in the morning and do something I didn’t feel like doing.  I wanted to know exactly what the Bible said so I left the Brewers.  I wish I would have waited until after the season because quitting is never the right thing to do and that decision was both beneficial in the long run for me but I think showed a lack of character on my part.”

While pursuing his other interests, Etheridge received a call from Dan Willwee that enabled him to once again have strong interest in pursuing his career in baseball. “I was terrified about going back. Just the thought of having to explain to my teammates with the Brewers why I quit on them and what I had been doing my made stomach churn.  And then there was the possibility that I wouldn’t have it any more. Needless to say, I was worried.”

Etheridge also admitted that one of the deciding factors of him going back to play baseball was his mom. “I asked her what she wanted me to do with my life and she reluctantly said she had been praying I go back to baseball.  I knew I needed to go back then because she never liked me playing.  My dad, who is the most influential person in my baseball career, was trying not to get his hopes up because of the way I had bailed my first go around.”

Etheridge also was quick to thank Steve Springer, who is not only the Blue Jays’ performance coach, but has also been his mentor and friend throughout his life. In Springer’s interview with JaysProspects, Springer stated: “I’ve known Wes since he was fifteen. I’ve watched him win championships in high school, go 10-2 in college – literally find success in all aspects of the game. I believe in him. I don’t have to see him pitch, because I know what his ball does – it sinks.”

Etheridge posted a 5.40 ERA in 8.1 innings pitched in the Arizona League this past fall

Comparatively, Etheridge had equally positive things to state about Springer: “There is no denying that Springer has worked miracles for my career,” he said.  “He got me a job in Maui and a job with the Blue Jays.  There is no one person on this earth who has done more for my professional career than Steve Springer and he does it because he is a just a genuinely good person.  I’m lucky to have him in my life and on my side because there aren’t many people as kind hearted as him in professional baseball.”

As Etheridge highlighted, Springer got Etheridge a tryout with Maui (Hawaii) of the independent Golden Baseball League. There, the right-hander excelled, going 10-0 with a 1.76 ERA in 15 starts. In fact in over 92 innings pitched, he struck out 86 and walked only 18 batters.

“The baseball there just isn’t as deep.  There are a few good hitters in each lineup but there are also guys that are a lot easier outs than in the minor league. But to be honest with you, the good hitters there were older more experienced guys and they were just as good as anyone I saw this year ” Etheridge stated, speaking on behalf of his experience. “Another difference that stands out is that in independent ball you are entirely on your own which I think helped me a lot because I got a better idea of what I needed to do to perform at my best or close to it.”

With the Dunedin Blue Jays this season, Wes Etheridge went a perfect 32-for-32 in save opportunities

Etheridge found comparable success with the Dunedin Blue Jays this past season, where, in 45 games, he recorded a 1-1 record with a 1.89 ERA and 32 saves. His tremendous level of play earned him a promotion to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats to end the season, where he finished by helping the team win a championship.

“I can honestly say I thoroughly enjoyed my season this year with the Blue Jays and topping it off with a championship was incredible,” he said. “The atmosphere was great playing in Richmond and I feel truly blessed that the Blue Jays treated me as well as they did.”

After the season concluded, it was not the end for baseball for Etheridge, as he then went to the AFL league to get some more innings in. While in Arizona, Etheridge played in six games, recording a 5.40 ERA in 8.1 innings pitched. Recognizing a difference in his walk rate and ERA, JaysProspects asked the Californian-native if there were any major differences between minor league ball and the AFL.

“I hate to say it but the atmosphere in the fall league was dead,” he said. “All the games are day games and there are barely any fans.  The competition is good but the major difference is the atmosphere.  I hurt my back the first week and never felt right after that and sometimes that can take a toll on your psyche so my views on the league might be a little skewed.”

While Etheridge may not have 100-percent satisfied with his game play in the AFL, there is no denying that he has had many other successes. He has been part of championship teams throughout high school, went 12-4 for the University of California-Irvine and won a championship with Cypress College.

Overall, however, Etheridge announced that his best day was winning his high school CIF championship. “I had been playing baseball with those guys since I was a young child and to win on that stage with lifelong friends I can’t imagine that ever being passed up by another baseball moment, but it if does I will be one lucky individual.”

When asked what skills have enabled him to experience such successes, Etheridge admitted that he believes his best ability is keeping a level head on the mound. “It is something I think is really important in pitching; the ability to just throw your best pitch and not let the results affect the next pitch or your mental state.”

Etheridge is continuing working on his skills throughout the offseason. Upon finishing his time in the AFL, he headed to play in Venezuela and was still playing when JaysProspects got in contact with him. He concluded that for the remainder of his off-season he is going to continue to keep working hard and getting ready for his next season: “My next season could be my last shot so I want to make sure I’m ready to go!”

JaysProspects wishes Wes Etheridge the best of luck in his career  and we thank him kindly for his time.

1) I am not close enough to the “pulse of the front office” to give valid opinions or speculation on rehabbing players. I can only write about what I hear, and chances are, if I have heard it, you have too.

2) Keep the questions coming! I have a few I held back for forthcoming columns, but the more I get, the more topics we can cover in short form.

3) Thank you, one and all, for the incredible page view numbers on the Callis 140. I was astounded to hear how many hits the site had in the hours after the interview went up, and I have to thank each and every one of you for making that happen.

Ok, onto some questions.

Many wonder where Kyle Drabek fits in the rotation in 2012

From Keith via the Comments Section:
Would love to get your perspective on Drabek. I know 2011 was a disaster for Drabek, but it seems like people have just written him off completely. But he was our top prospect last year and has some of the best pure stuff on the team. I have not hearda peep about how his offseason training has gone or what the team is looking for from him in 2012. It seems he has dropped in the depth chart and likely will not make the team. He is even being talked about in trades. The way I see it is no team gets by with 5 starters any more. You need 7+ guys in any season. With Alvarez and McGowan on innings limits, we will need a Drabek to compete. What have you heard about Drabek and what do realistically see as happening with him in 2012.

I have to say upfront, in the interest of honesty, I am a huge fan of Kyle Drabek. On my personal top 25 list going into 2011, he was number two (behind Lawrie) and I thought, while not an ace, he had a great chance to be a consistent number 2-3 starter, giving the Blue Jays fans no reason to ever miss Marcum. The problems last year seemed to stem from a lack of control, which then translated to a lack of confidence. The once cocky kid seemed defeated the second he took the mound. The Jays did the right thing by demoting him (although, I would have suggested New Hampshire, as the PCL is not really the place for a pitcher to regain his confidence) and he did pretty well, all things considered. I have always been an advocate of making Doug Drabek a consultant to the team on some level. Kyle needs a big league pitching coach to be in his ear, and guide him through the challenges of the 162 game grind, but a second voice, in his dad, who was a true bulldog, would only seem to help. (That said, I write that, and could see the potential conflict as well. See: Rasmus family). As far as this off season, all I have read is that he has been working out, throwing, and trying to recover the “it” factor. Because of the wonder of social media, he seems to be in good spirits and pumped up for the upcoming year. My projection? I honestly believe he is going to put it all back together in 2012. I think he has the proverbial chip (Lays brand) on his shoulder, and is ready to reclaim what he believes is rightfully his: the ball, every fifth day, in the Show. I am pulling for him.

From Andrew via email:
Alex Anthopolous’s draft vision and why he happens to take guys higher than where they’re projected to be drafted? (Syndergaard, Jacob Anderson, Musgrove)

Players are “projected” in the MLB draft in two ways: Talent and signability. Unlike the other major sports, (I am just including the NBA and the NFL…I can’t speak to the NHL draft), baseball players have options, unless they are the rare senior in college. In the case of the three you mentioned, their commitments to colleges made them, in the eyes of some teams, a risk pick, regardless of the talent they have. Under the recently expired CBA, teams were given “slot guidelines” to follow, but no set limit on how much they could spend on draft picks. So, Alex, being as shrewd as he is, took chances on the ability to buy guys out of their college commitments, and it has paid off. (the Tyler Beede case falls into the Bizzaro world category, as he is a guy that should have been a top 10 pick, but his “number” scared teams off…and it proved to be correct). The new rules in the CBA are going to change things a little, but not as drastically as was first thought. (I would opine for 450 words here, but enough sites out there have tremendous breakdowns of the CBA). I am interested to see what AA comes up with in the upcoming draft, as they again have a slew of Round 1-3 picks, but may have to be a bit more conservative.

Which pitcher in our system currently has the best chance of leading our staff for the next decade like Halladay did?

Doug believes that Justin Nicolino could be the next Ace of the Blue Jays' franchise

It’s funny, when I asked Jim Callis a similar question, I actually deleted the line prior to sending to him “I will not evoke the name Doc Halladay”. I never think it is fair to put expectations on a player in any sport to be the next insert legend here. (I think I have a few hundred Harold Minor rookie cards stashed away somewhere…aka the next Jordan). That said, I think there are a few pitchers in the system that have the potential to be top of the rotation guys. Nicolino, Hutchison and McGuire are three names that come to mind, and while they may never be true aces, they do have the potential to star in the league for years to come. Everyone is very high on Daniel Norris, as I am as well, but I want to reserve full judgment until he has 50 innings or so in pro ball. For me, the guy is Syndergaard. In talking to scouts and teammates of his, they all agree that he has that special something. He has the stuff of an ace, as well as the physical make up you look for in a top line starter. I see him making a big leap this year, and would not be surprised if he was pitching in meaningful games in New Hampshire by August/September.

From Kevin via email:

Strangely enough AA seems to do exactly what he says that he going to do. He said that he was going to add a closer, restock the bullpen, target a front of the rotation pitcher, and add a middle of the order bat. If we assume that he will use the trade market and that a ‘front of the order’ pitcher is ‘as good or better’ than Romero… the list of pitchers available at any price has to be quite short. If a pitcher was available in a Halladay-type deal which prospects would make sense?

Well, I think we know EXACTLY what it would take to acquire King Felix or Matt Cain…..(yup, ROLLING my eyes….for those that don’t get the reference, put down your Zach Morris sized cellphones, fire up the Commodore 64, and get on Twitter for goodness sakes!). I had a good natured debate a few weeks ago with a fellow jaysprospects staffer, that there are no more than 12 TRUE aces in MLB, and I do not think any of them are available at the moment. However, let’s just pick a few arbitrary names and come up with some fun trades, shall we? (and, I have sources in the RC that say these will all happen…yup, made the same joke twice in one paragraph….)

Tim Lincecum for Jake Marisnick, Noah Syndergaard, Drew Hutchison and Brett Lawrie

Timmy Tim-Tim is arguably the best young pitcher in the Major Leagues, and the haul it would take to procure him would need to blow the Giants away. Because of that status, Lawrie would need to be included in the deal, as opposed to someone like d’Arnaud. (Posey already in place…Andrew Susac in the system as well) This deal makes a lot of sense to the Giants at the deadline if they are out of it, but for me, would not be a good move for the Jays…it is a LOT to give up.

Which prospects would it take to get Clayton Kershaw to the Blue Jays?

Clayton Kershaw for Anthony Gose, Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino

I typed that out, and as I look at it, 98 out of a 100 people would say “that’s TOO much” and I am seeing it as “is that enough”? Kershaw put it all together this year in a tremendous Cy Young season for a pretty bad team. HE is the kind of guy you build a staff around. And while I think Noah could be that guy in two years, this is a trade I think the Jays would HAVE to make.

Matt Garza for Jake Marisnick, A.J. Jimenez and Deck McGuire

I wanted to include one sort of realistic one, and by NO means am I of the impression that Garza is an ace. However, he would be a nice addition to the staff as a 2-3. He has the experience of facing the AL East, he grinds out 200 innings, and has very good stuff…and he is still young. In this scenario, the Jays are dealing from strength, as Gose=Marisnick, d’Arnaud>Jimenez and Deck is one of 8 2-3 types in the system.

From Maria via email:

So, you’re the GM of the Blue Jays – dp (since we do like our initials!) and Rogers has given you a $120M payroll for 2012-2013. What are the immediate changes you make – holes you fill, people you get, trades you make? How do you most effectively spend this $120M to make this team potentially wildcard/playoff this coming season?

OK, I have to attack this in a couple different ways, as I am not sure the “magical moves” are out there for 2012. I think, as constructed, the Jays are between 84-88 wins. The biggest upgrade that I would make at the moment would be at 2nd base, but signing Johnson for the year eliminates that. Of course, you could make a huge push for Fielder (5/140m) but I don’t see that as the prudent move. (And you will see in a minute why I say that). Right now? The move would be to acquire Garza at a low cost if possible, and maybe add a bullpen arm. That’s it, that’s the list.

BUT

2013 is when I can have some fun as the GM. Here are the moves, in order of importance.

If Doug became the GM, he'd do all he could to make Votto a Blue Jay.

1) Trade for Votto at all costs. (and while you are at it, sign him to a ridiculous extension….5+ at 130m?) I think the Reds went “all in” for 2012…problem? I think the Cardinals are still better, and even losing Prince (and Braun for 50) the Brewers are still viable. They will realize this and I have 100 prospects to choose from to deal. So, I move Comer, Hutch, Marisnick and Lind (ha!) to the Reds, as they have lost a bit of bargaining power with Votto on the last year of his deal. I bring Lawrie to my meet and greet with Joey, and play the “you are Canadian” card… and he signs the extension.

2) I hire 50 or so male and female models to be the vendors in the upper deck. (and I promote it on the Jays official website). Want to fill up the “cheap seats”? I don’t want to say more for fear of backlash…

3) At this point, I am confident that Hech is ready to take over SS, so I take Yunel aside and let him know to get used to the other side of 2nd base. Votto, Escobar, Hech and Lawrie…I like it.

4) I sign a 20 year deal with Labatts to produce “dp Lager” … I am the GM for goodnesss sake.

5) I look at my depth, and realize I like my OF of Bautista, Gose and Rasmus. I am excited that Gose has lived up to his potential, and I reward him with a 5 year/18m “buy out” contract. I turn to Rasmus’ dad at a game in June, clink glasses, and say thank you.

6) The staff… have you seen it? I extended Ricky Ro to stay at the #1 spot for one more year, as Noah (who I bought out arbitration years as well) is a STUD as my future ace, Deck is going to get 200 innings, Drabek is a 13 game winner in the 4-hole…and the entire MLB population is talking about Justin Nicolino like they did about Matt Moore in the winter of 2011. And Daniel Norris just called me (how did he get my cell number) to ask when he is coming up….

I think that is the perfect mix of patience and pounce. 2012, while a big step forward, is not the year to go for it. 2013 is. Excuse me while I wait for AA to ring me up on my cell…..

Thanks for all the great questions! Keep them coming please. Hit me up on Twitter @dougplourd or email me at doplo2001@yahoo.com.

140 characters, for the new readers, is an interview that has no rules, except that questions and answers must be confined to Twitter direct messages, thus 140 characters. With that said…

@dougplourd:
Jim, thanks for taking the time to do the “140,” as you know we at @JaysProspects are big fans of BA. Ready?

@jimcallisBA:
Sure, fire away.

Jim Callis would choose Jake Marisnick over Anthony Gose.

@DougPlourd:
Who would you keep and who would you trade between Gose and Marisnick?

@jimcallisBA:
If I could only keep one, it would be Marisnick. Gose is the better athlete, but Marisnick is a good athlete & a better hitter.

@DougPlourd:
Dinner party, living or deceased, tell me the three baseball guests you would invite.

@jimcallisBA:
Hmmm. Jackie Robinson, Babe Ruth, Ted Williams are the first three guys who pop into my head. That would be a good time.

@DougPlourd:
Kyle Drabek or Travis Snider, which one has the better bounce back in 2012?

@jimcallisBA:
I’ll say Snider. Not suprised Drabek struggled as a rookie, but extent & Triple-A woes bother me. Have more faith in Snider.

@DougPlourd:
Cookies, Cake or Pie?

@jimcallisBA:
Pie, definitely. Preferably pecan or key lime.

@DougPlourd:
If the jays had managed to sign Tyler Beede, would they be in your top three drafts of 2011?

@jimcallisBA:
Not quite. Top five, but not top three.

@DougPlourd:
Nationals, Red Sox, Pirates and Rays?

@jimcallisBA:
My top five (if Beede signed) would be Was, Ari, Bos, Pit, Tor.
(Doug’s note: I always forget the unreal Arizona draft at the top with Bauer and Bradley)

@DougPlourd:
Growing up in Virginia, who was the team of your youth? Did you have a favorite player?

@jimcallisBA:
We had no local team but spent most summers in Cape Cod, so I followed the Red Sox. Carl Yastrzemski was my favorite player.

Yaz was my favorite player because I remember being fascinated by all his stats on the back of a 3-D Kellogg’s baseball card.

(Doug’s note: Those cards are a staple of my youth as well. I remember getting the 1977 Ron Leflore and reading his rap sheet on the back……)

Callis states that Osuna should become a strong arm, but is years away and should begin season in GCL.

@DougPlourd:
Thoughts on 16-year-old pitcher, Roberto Osuna? Where do you think he pitches this year at such a young age?

@jimcallisBA:
Years away, obviously, but quality arm. Kind of physically maxed out at 6-2, 230. Sounds like he’ll pitch in the GCL this year.

@DougPlourd:
A typical “chat type” format to this one: Anne Hathaway or Jessica Alba? Who has the higher ceiling?

@jimcallisBA:
I probably rate Hathaway higher than most, but Alba has to be the answer to both questions there.

@DougPlourd:
Chicago style hot dogs…yay or nay?

@jimcallisBA:
Thumbs up, not that I eat a lot of hot dogs. But I did have one just the other day.
(Doug’s Note: Chicago style Hot Dog=All beef dog, poppy seed bun, yellow mustard, relish, onions, tomatoes, dill pickle spear, peppers)

@DougPlourd:
Who is/was the one highly touted Blue Jays prospect that you still can’t believe that everybody missed on?

@jimcallisBA:
Missed in that he was better than thought, or missed in that we thought he’d be better?

@DougPlourd:
How about one of each?

@jimcallisBA:
Just ran through our overall Top 100 Prospects list archive & hadn’t remembered that we ranked Jose Silva No. 10 in 1994. Wow.

As for guys we were low on, he wasn’t a Jay at the time, but like everyone else we didn’t see Jose Bautista doing this.

@DougPlourd:
Ok, only a couple more, and then its trivia time! Who is the one band/artist you could not live without on your iPod?

@jimcallisBA:
Amazingly, I do not have an iPod. My wife and four kids all do. I’m a classic rock guy, so I’d say Springsteen or Zeppelin.
(Doug’s note: Ok, search is over, we found the last person without one…..)

@DougPlourd:
HOF Fame voting was announced yesterday, with Larkin the sole elected player. Who would have been on your ballot?

@jimcallisBA:
Larkin, Bagwell, Raines, Trammell, Martinez, McGwire, Palmeiro.

@DougPlourd:
I know you were a big fan of 24. With that no longer on the air, which shows are an “80″ in watchability for you right now?

@jimcallisBA:
I do miss my Jack Bauer. My favorite shows are all on USA: Burn Notice, White Collar, Psych. Also enjoying Homeland.

@DougPlourd:
Gut feeling, which of the current Jays starting pitching prospects do you think emerges as the next big thing?

@jimcallisBA:
If I can pick one minor leaguer, give me Daniel Norris.

@DougPlourd:
Ok, its time for 3up3down trivia! Your category is U of Georgia alumni! Please, no google cheating.

@jimcallisBA:
Hopefully, I will not embarrass myself with the UGA trivia.

@DougPlourd:
Ok, question 1: Dan Amos is the Chairman and CEO of which US based insurance company?

@jimcallisBA:
Oh, no! I have no idea on that one. I will guess State Farm.

@DougPlourd:
Sorry! We were looking for Aflac! (Tried to keep it prospecty with the HS all star game!)

@jimcallisBA:
See, I thought State Farm had a Southeast feel to it. I’m 0-for-1.

@DougPlourd:
Question 2: Which “non-big 4″ Seinfeld cast member left UGA one credit short of graduating?

@jimcallisBA:
That’s Newman, isn’t it? I’m pretty sure on that one! Wayne Knight!

@DougPlourd:
Correct! Very nice! Final question, who played Vicky Vale in the 1989 Batman movie?

@jimcallisBA:
Whoops, Tweeted rather than DMed … That’s right down the middle of the plate! Kim Basinger.

Jim Callis tied Deck McGuire's trivia record with 2 out-of 3 correct!

@DougPlourd:
Grooved fastball! And correct! 2-3 puts you with Deck McGuire in second place, Justin Nicolino still the only 3-3

@jimcallisBA:
Well, at least I didn’t cheat. I think I get the tiebreaker over Deck because my alma mater has more CWS titles.

@DougPlourd:
Ha! I like that! Little Georgia rivalry!

Past Results:
Justin Nicolino 3-3
Deck McGuire 2-3
Noah Syndergaard 1.5-3
Bryan Longpre 1-3

@DougPlourd:

Jim, as a guy a read fanatically and look up to, I can’t tell you how much fun this was for me. Thank you so much for taking the time

@jimcallisBA:
This was fun. Let me know when you post it and I’ll tweet the link.

@DougPlourd:
Keep up the incredible work at @BaseballAmerica. Looking forward to my prospect handbook in my mailbox!

@jimcallisBA:
Thanks. Should be there in a couple of weeks.