Are Blue Jays fans over-valuing Noah Syndergaard?

It’s funny that I’m writing this on a prospect-focused site, but I think some perspective is in order. Prospect valuations have gotten out of control. Not necessarily at the professional level, where this offseason has seen a trend toward lower prospect values (4-for-1 trades were the norm). However, among fans, prospects have gained legendary status before ever reaching the majors. (*Note that I’m as guilty as anyone, and I’m presenting Noah Syndergaard with his Cy Young Award in my mind already…)

Here’s some sobering facts about prospects: Year over year, pitching prospects continue to have a >30% failure rate. Over 50% never produce more than 2 WAR in a given season. Top hitting prospects have a 10% failure rate, and again, over 50% never contribute more than 2 WAR per year. Effectively, what I’m telling you is: “That prospect you like? They’ll be lucky to be a replacement-level player.” Remember that next time someone proposes a trade involving prospects.

The problem is further compounded when attaching a draft-status to a given player. First-round picks only make it to the majors about 30% of the time (Look it up) and of those, less than 10% are ever all-stars. Every other major sport would laugh at that kind of success rate. MLB has addressed some of this discrepancy with the new draft system, but it will be years before we see if that properly values draft position. (more…)