Archive for February, 2012
Overvaluing your own…
113 months ago
by 5thStarter
in News and Notes
Are Blue Jays fans over-valuing Noah Syndergaard?
It’s funny that I’m writing this on a prospect-focused site, but I think some perspective is in order. Prospect valuations have gotten out of control. Not necessarily at the professional level, where this offseason has seen a trend toward lower prospect values (4-for-1 trades were the norm). However, among fans, prospects have gained legendary status before ever reaching the majors. (*Note that I’m as guilty as anyone, and I’m presenting Noah Syndergaard with his Cy Young Award in my mind already…)
Here’s some sobering facts about prospects: Year over year, pitching prospects continue to have a >30% failure rate. Over 50% never produce more than 2 WAR in a given season. Top hitting prospects have a 10% failure rate, and again, over 50% never contribute more than 2 WAR per year. Effectively, what I’m telling you is: “That prospect you like? They’ll be lucky to be a replacement-level player.” Remember that next time someone proposes a trade involving prospects.
The problem is further compounded when attaching a draft-status to a given player. First-round picks only make it to the majors about 30% of the time (Look it up) and of those, less than 10% are ever all-stars. Every other major sport would laugh at that kind of success rate. MLB has addressed some of this discrepancy with the new draft system, but it will be years before we see if that properly values draft position. (more…)
Interview with newly-acquired first-baseman, Gabe Jacobo, and his wife, Tanne
53 months ago
While Gabe Jacobo was drafted by the Angels in the 10th round of the 2008 Draft, he joined the Blue Jays organization this year in the Rule 5 Draft
This past December, the Toronto Blue Jays were fortunate to be able to grab first baseman, Gabe Jacobo, in the Rule 5 Draft from the Los Angeles Angels. Being new to the organization, JaysProspects was very fortunate to be able to sit down with not only the strong prospect, but also his wife, Tanne, who both discussed Gabe’s baseball journey thus far.
Jacobo was drafted in the 10th round of the 2008 MLB Draft by the Los Angeles Angels, a professional team only a few hours from his hometown of Visalia, California. “Being drafted by any MLB team has always been a dream of mine. So when a team in my home state picked me it was pretty exciting, but at the same time I realized I would be all over the country until eventually playing in California,” Jacobo said.
Jacobo was right about the needed travel as he started with the Angels in Orem Utah and with the Cedar Rapids (A) in Iowa. Collectively that year he posted a .324 average in 70 games, recording 28 doubles, three triples, 10 homeruns and 56 RBIS.
“I really enjoyed my first year in pro ball with the Angels. I would say that my most memorable moment would be my first at bat, when I hit a homerun on the first pitch. That is something I will never forget.” (more…)