Guest post by Steven McEwen

Last night, highly touted pitcher 21-year-old pitcher, Henderson Alvarez, out of Venezuela made his major league debut. Despite all the hype coming into today, it may just be the fourth most talked about event from the Blue Jays today.  Despite the benches clearing, Brett Lawrie’s grand slam, and ‘Spydome,’ let’s talk about Alvarez’s debut.

PITCHES THROWN

During the game, Alvarez showed a four-seam fastball (which he threw 69 times) that averaged 94 MPH and topped out at 96.9. He also threw a two-seam fastball (thrown 7 times) that averaged 92.6 MPH and topped out at 94.5 MPH. His third pitch was a slider (thrown 7 times) averaged 82.7 MPH that topped out at 84.6 MPH.  Lastly, he had an effective changeup (thrown 21 times) that averaged 85.7 MPH and topped out at 87.4 MPH.

FOUR SEAM FASTBALL & TWO SEAM FASTBALL

His fastball showed great late movement and moved on average 7.9 inches from release towards the right batter’s box and 5.3 inches of downward movement on average. Of the 69 four-seam fastballs he threw, 45 were for strikes, swinging. His two seam fastball moved 9.9 inches towards the right batter’s box and 2.7 inches of downward movement. He threw seven with only two of them being strikes.

SLIDER

Alvarez’s slider moved 4.8 inches towards the left batter’s box and 0.9 inches of downwards movement on average. This was an effective pitch as out of the seven attempts he used it, six of them were strikes. Interestingly, none of them were swinging strikes.

CHANGEUP

His changeup moved 6.4 inches towards the right batter’s box and had 2.6 inches of downward movement on average.  Of the 21 changeups he threw, 11 ended up in strikes, three of which were swinging strikes.

PITCH LOCATION

Overall he had five swinging strikes (MLB average is 8.8 for 104 pitches), 18 called strikes, and 41 strikes via foul or ball-in-play. He had three called strikes that were out of the strike zone to the left batter’s box, and two called balls that were actually in the strike zone.

  • 56 pitches were in the strike zone. This equals 53.9%. MLB average is 45.7%.
  • 25 pitches were to the left third of the plate. Of the 25, 4 were in the bottom 6 inches, 14 were in the bottom foot of the strike zone and 11 were in the top foot.
  • 24 pitches were to the center third of the plate. Of the 24, 8 were in the bottom 6 inches, 20 were in the bottom foot of the zone and 4 were in the top foot.
  • 7 pitches were in the right third of the plate. Of the 7, 1 was in the bottom 6 inches, 6 were in the bottom foot of the zone and 1 was in the top foot.
  • Of the 48 pitches out of the strike zone, 38 were called balls, 3 were called strikes, 4 were fouled off, 2 were put in play for outs and 1 was a swing and miss.

BACK TO BACK STRIKEOUTS

JEMILE WEEKS STRIKE OUT.   THIRD INNING

  • Pitch 1: 93.8 MPH Two Seam Fastball – Foul
  • Pitch 2: 86.1 MPH Changeup – Called Strike
  • Pitch 3: 86.2 MPH Changeup – Ball
  • Pitch 4: 94.6 MPH Four Seam Fastball – Foul
  • Pitch 5: 87.4 MPH Changeup – Foul
  • Pitch 6: 85.7 MPH Changeup – Called Strike

CLIFF PENNINGTON STRIKE OUT. THIRD INNING

  • Pitch 1: 94.5 MPH Four Seam Fastball – Swinging Strike
  • Pitch 2: 94.4 MPH Four Seam Fastball – Called Strike
  • Pitch 3: 86.8 MPH Changeup – Ball
  • Pitch 4: 86.9 MPH Changeup – Ball
  • Pitch 5: 94.9 MPH Four Seam Fastball – Foul Tip

HIS BALLS IN PLAY & FIELDING INDEPENDANT NUMBERS

Alvarez faced 27 batters total, inducing nine ground balls, three fly balls, one popup, and three line drives. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) was 4.95 to go with his 4.74 ERA. His expected FIP (xFIP) was 3.71. (xFIP normalizes home run rate to league average home run per fly ball rate of 10.6%).

OVERALL IMPRESSIONS

Overall, despite not getting many swings and misses, Alvarez was extremely impressive.  He pounded the lower strike zone (40 of 56 in zone pitches) and induced weak contact.  He had only four hard hit balls all game and kept the ball on the ground.  His fastball was nasty, hard with lots of movement, and his curveball was better than advertized, showing good command and using it at appropriate times in the count.  His slider wasn’t used much, but it was tight, with not much that much movement though and a bit loopy, making it easier to hit. Based on of these factors, his pitch sequencing, and the way he adjusted to what hitters were doing, Alvarez has immense front of the rotation potential and can only get better as he gets more experience.