Guest post by Steven McEwen

On June 7th, 2010, Blue Jays fans waited with bated breath for their new-found saviour, Alex Anthopoulos, to make his first draft selection as the Toronto Blue Jays General Manager. Blue Jays fans had become frustrated with former GM J.P. Richardi, and his safe picks and failed High School draftees that merely littered the lower minors all the way to the big leagues. They wanted change. They wanted a new direction. They wanted hope.

Alex Anthopoulos’ first selection in the MLB First Year Player Draft gave them just that. With the 11th pick overall, the Blue Jays selected Deck McGuire out of Georgia Tech and never looked back. Here is how he has performed so far with his drafted team:
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After signing at the deadline on August 16th last year, Deck made his debut in the spring with High-A Ball Dunedin Blue Jays.

Normal Numbers: Deck pitched in 19 Games, recording 104.2 innings pitched, which allowing 89 hits, 38 runs, 32 earned runs, 38 walks, and 102 strikeouts.

Advanced Numbers: In his 19 games, he had a 2.75 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 38.2% of BIP for GB, 39.6% BIP for FB, 11.3% BIP for LD, 7.8% of BIP for PU, 68 K’s Swinging, and 7.8% FB For HR’s.

Just a few notes;
-FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, it assigns a set value to homeruns, walks, and strikeouts otherwise known as true outcomes, and predicts how a pitcher does without factoring in defensive play behind him (Since as we know ERA only accounts for errors).
-BIP is Balls In Play, or the number of plate appearances where defense comes into play. Homeruns, walks and strikeouts are all taken out for Balls In Play.
-FB is flyballs, GB is groundballs, LD is linedrives and PU is popups.

What makes him even better is that his numbers showed pretty decent control (3.26 BB/9) and solid fielding independent pitching numbers. He was able to keep balls from making solid contact (shown by his 11.3% LD Rate) and had 46% of his balls in play either via grounders or pop ups. His flyball per homerun rate was right around average.

Because of his stellar performance, he was promoted to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats on July 25, 2011. Where he continued to impress

Note: Article was written prior to games on 08-07-11.

Normal Numbers: In two games with his new team, he recorded 13 innings, while allowing 14 hits, 6 earned runs, 3 walks, and 11 strikeouts.

Advanced Numbers: That being said in those two games, he posted an ERA of 4.15, had a 5.20 FIP, as well as a 52.5% GB, 25.0% FB, 17.5% LD, 5.0 PU, 7 K’s swinging, and 30% of flyballs were hit for homeruns, well above league average.

As can be seen, his control has certainly transferred to AA and has induced more groundballs. While he has also gotten more linedrives’s, it should be expected with the change in levels as he is presently facing better hitters. His FIP is inflated because of a ridiculous 30% of flyballs going for homeruns – but do not worry – that will not keep up. While it is too early to make judgments from his AA numbers, one this is certain.  Deck McGuire has great stuff, and the potential to be a phenomenal pitcher.  We shouldn‘t be surprised if he‘s pitching in the majors by the end of 2012.